Saturday, July 5, 2014

Pro-Amnesty Crowd Burns American Flag At Murrieta On 4th Of July


Here’s one to crank up your blood pressure.
An American flag has reportedly been burned by pro-amnesty protesters near the Murrieta Border Patrol station on America’s Independence Day.
Breitbart News obtained the above photograph, which shows a burnt flag on the ground, from an anti-illegal immigration activist who was monitoring the pro-amnesty demonstration.
Opponents of illegal immigration had gathered in Murrieta to stop Friday’s planned transfer of Central American illegal aliens, as they did earlier this week. A pro-amnesty counter-demonstration was organized in response.

The illegal aliens, many of them unaccompanied children, are being brought from overcrowded Texas detention facilities for processing in California.
In addition, Breitbart News obtained photographs of torn-up flags that pro-amnesty demonstrators had impaled on a fence.

Post Continues on

Cancer death rates are twice as high where GM crops and agricultural chemicals are used

 By David Gutierrez | Natural News
Agricultural regions that see a heavy use of chemicals and in which genetically modified (GM) crops are grown have a cancer death rate twice as high as the national average, according to a report by the Ministry of Health of Cordoba Province in Argentina.
“Once again, what we have complained about for years was confirmed,” said Medardo Avila Vazquez of the University Network for Environment and Health (Reduas), “and especially what doctors say about the sprayed towns and areas affected by industrial agriculture. Cancer cases are multiplying as never before in areas with massive use of pesticides.”
Cancer has skyrocketed
The Provincial Tumour Registry and the Department of Statistics and Census analyzed data on cancer tumors and death rates between the years of 2004 and 2009. The report found that the highest rate of cancer deaths occurred in the area known as “pampa gringa,” which also has the heaviest use of agrochemicals and GM crops.
According to the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer, Argentina’s cancer death rate is 115.13 per 100,000. Yet, the Cordoba report found that the average cancer death rate for the province was significantly higher, at 134.8 in the capital city of Cordoba and 158 in the province as a whole. When the departments in the pampa gringa were examined separately, the rate shot up even higher: 216.8 in San Justo, 217.4 in Union, 228.4 in Presidente Roque Saenz Pena and 229.8 in Marcos Juarez.
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The report was taken as vindication by Cordoba residents and public health advocates, who have been warning of climbing cancer rates in the province for years.
“The study of Cordoba matches the surveys we conducted in 18 industrial agriculture areas. Cancer has skyrocketed in the last 15 years,” said doctor and researcher Damian Verzenassi of the Faculty of Medical Sciences in Rosario.
Experts demand government action
Yet, the government report itself actually deemphasized the finding of exceptionally high rates of cancer deaths in agricultural areas. Instead, the report focused on analyzing cancer incidences (new cases) by age, sex and location, and comparing incidence rates with those rates in other countries.
However, health advocates immediately drew the connection with agricultural chemicals and demanded government action to protect the public.
According to Fernando Manas of the National University of Rio Cuarto, “there is evidence of high levels of genetic damage in people of Marcos Juarez, which may result from unintentional exposure to pesticides.”
Manas noted that, for example, lakes, soils and rainwater in the Marcos Juarez department have been found to be contaminated with the herbicide glyphosate (“Roundup”) and one of its breakdown products, AMPA. Over the past eight years, researchers at Rio Cuarto have published 15 separate papers confirming that Cordoba residents who have been exposed to pesticides suffer from genetic damage and a higher risk of cancer.
Verzenassi condemned efforts by the government and industry to obscure the connection between agrochemicals and cancer.
“They keep demanding studies on something that is already proven and do not take urgent measures to protect the population,” he said. “There is ample evidence that the agricultural model has health consequences, we are talking about a production model that is a huge public health problem.”
Another researcher, Avila Vazquez of the University Network for Environment and Health, echoed this criticism and called for the immediate implementation of measures to prohibit aerial spraying, keep chemical applications at least one km from homes and ban agrochemical storage and spraying from urban areas.
“The tobacco companies denied the link between smoking and cancer, and took decades to recognize the truth,” Vazquez said. “The biotech and agrochemical corporations are the same as the tobacco industry, they lie and favor business over the health of the population.”
Sources for this article include:
This article originally appeared on Natural News.



What the New Caliphate Means for the World


Two weeks ago, our illustrious President Obama stood in the White House and made the following statement:

“[T]he truth of the matter is that for all the challenges we face, all the problems that we have, if you had to be – if you had to choose any moment to be born in human history, not knowing what your position was going to be, who you were going to be, you’d choose this time. The world is less violent than it has ever been. It is healthier than it has ever been. It is more tolerant than it has ever been. It is better fed then it’s ever been. It is more educated than it’s ever been.”

On Sunday afternoon, my Twitter account lit up, as the various radical Muslims I follow erupted with jubilant declarations that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS) had officially declared a caliphate – an Islamic state ruled by Islamic Shariah. No longer is it ISIS, but simply the Islamic State (IS). After an official meeting of ISIS’ shura (religious) council, they named their shadowy leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, to be the Emir al-Mu’minin, or the commander of the faithful – the first “caliph” in roughly 90 years. The caliph is essentially a Muslim pope, president and general all rolled into one.
The potential implications for the world are absolutely profound. First, according to Islamic jurisprudence, once a caliph has been declared, it is mandatory upon all Muslims to make a pledge of allegiance to the sitting caliph, known in Arabic as the bay’ah. The bay’ah translated is as follows:
“I pledge my allegiance to the Commander of the Faithful, to hear and obey, in hardship and in blessings, to establish the religion of Allah, and to enforce Allah’s Shariah, and to expand the order of Allah, to establish the global Islamic state.”
According to various hadith (Muslim sacred traditions found outside of the Quran), if one does not make the pledge, he will die the death of jahiliyya, or as a non-Muslim, and should be treated as a non-Muslim:
“[W]hen he stands before Allah on the Day of Judgment, and one who dies without having bound himself by an oath of allegiance (to an Amir) will die the death of one belonging to the days of Jahillyya.” (Abu Muslim 20: 4562)
Already, there have been numerous tribal leaders and jihadi groups that have pledged their allegiance to the caliph with their lives. What groups will follow? What might it look like if various groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabab in Somalia and Kenya, al-Qaida in Yemen, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, and perhaps even segments of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and throughout the world begin swearing allegiance to the caliph? The dangers of a snowballing trend is profound. Rather than having an Islamic State spanning segments of Syria and Iraq, there could be smaller segments of the Islamic State in numerous other nations.
Consider the fact that even here in the United States, Mohamed Elibiary, one of three senior fellows on President Obama’s Homeland Security Advisory Council, is an open supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, the goal of which is the re-establishment of the caliphate. Elibiary is an open supporter of the R4bia movement. According to its own website, R4bia is, among other things, the following:

  • R4BIA is the birth of a new world
  • R4BIA is the return of Muslims to world stage
  • R4BIA is the place where the so-called values of the West collapsed
  • R4BIA is the name of those who wake all the Islamic world with their death
  • R4BIA is justice for everyone against rotten Western values
  • R4BIA is unification of Islamic World
  • R4BIA is the end of oil sheikhs
  • R4BIA is the end of capitalists
  • R4BIA is the end of Zionists
  • R4BIA is the arena of martyrdom
  • R4BIA is a smiling martyrdom
How many Americans honestly feel comfortable knowing that the very man who openly supports the above statements was appointed by President Obama as a senior adviser within the Department of Homeland Security?

June 2014: ISIS Insurgents celebrate Mosul takeover
Another significant reality now that the caliphate has been restored is that it is actually mandatory for the caliphate to engage in perpetual jihad until there are literally no non-Muslims left throughout the world, or they submit to being subjected peoples:

Allah’s Apostle [Muhammad] said: “I have been ordered (by Allah) to fight against the people until they testify that none has the right to be worshipped but Allah and that Muhammad is Allah’s Apostle.” (Bukhari Volume 1, Book 2, Number 24)
According to the Islamic State media, one of the obligations of the caliph is stated as follows:

He must strive in jihad against those who stubbornly reject Islam after being called to it, until they become Muslim or agree to live under Muslim protection and pay jizyah, so that the rights of Allah will be fulfilled and His religion will prevail over all others.
Even beyond the official state jihad, it is also incumbent upon all Muslims everywhere to expand the rule of Islam through individual jihad. One of the significant debates that many Muslim jurists had with Osama bin Laden is that jihad is not technically legal according to Islamic Shariah unless there is a sitting caliph. Well, now there is one. As such, the potential for various lone-wolf terrorism attacks throughout the world has just absolutely ballooned.
Already there have been numerous pictures popping up on Twitter of Muslims gathering in European nations and throughout the world, donning the black flag of of the Islamic State to show their support. The danger that these groups hold for their host countries is tremendous.
Only two weeks ago, President Obama declared that the world is safer now than it ever has been, that it’s truly a wonderful time to be alive. Based on the various videos of celebrating Sunni Muslims in cities from Mosul to Raqqa, if you are a radical Muslim, then Obama may very well be right. A new day has dawned.

"America" The Movie: Audience Reactions Trailer


"America" The Movie: Audience Reactions Trailer

Dinesh D'Souza



Mrs Brown's sticky situation - Mrs Brown's Boys: Preview - BBC


VIDEO: ORWELL’S OBAMA: First-Ever 3D Political Video Details Obama’s Tyranny in Amazing Graphics!


ORWELL’S OBAMA: First-Ever 3D Political Video Details Obama’s Tyranny in Amazing Graphics!

July 4, 2014 10:48 am 
(TPNN) – In what is believed to be the first 3D political video history in history, Proe Graphique, leader of the Tea Party Fire Ants, has produced an incredible video highlighting the Orwellian rule and tyranny of Barack Obama with “eye-popping” graphics.
Released on the Fourth of July using George Orwell’s all-time great dystopian novel, “1984,” as a theme, Proe makes the comparison to what America is becoming under Barack Obama’s rule, and the mainstream media is assisting in the country’s destruction. 

“True to the 1984  novel, the media, on television, online, and in print tells people which political party is acceptable and which parties should be abondoned,” the video states.
SPECIAL: Make Barack Hussein Obama pay for his crimes against America. How much are you willing to take before you stand up and do something? This is your opportunity to be a true Patriot. Support the Tea Party Constitution Fund.
Proe Graphique told TPNN he “was always a guy who thought that people citing the end of America were lunatics walking around with ‘The End is Near’ written on sandwich boards.” However Proe believes that the numerous serious scandals and unconstitutional actions, including Obama’s promise to create a “Civilian Security Force,” requires different and better strategies to raise public awareness.
The Tea Party Fire Ants is a conservative activist group that has had success on Twitter bringing Congress to be more focused on getting to the truth about the Benghazi terrorist attack.
“We have three letters of thanks from Rep. [Frank] Wolf for helping to get co-sponsors on the now-manifest Benghazi Select Committee, one thank you from Rep.[Tom] Rice that says “Seeing great results” doing the same for HRes442, a variation of which Boehner has just announced,” Proe told TPNN, while promising the group is on the “cusp of some very big, larger achievements,” including working with “Overpasses for America.”
The group and some of its members have repeatedly had their Twitter accounts suspended due to left-wing trolls reporting unwarranted terms of service violations.
Proe told TPNN via email that this is not politics as usual and that it’s time to “sound the alarms” and reach a whole new audience:
“But what is happening now is different. In my opinion it’s time to start sounding alarms. If doing a stereoscopic, Hollywood-style video filled with visual metaphors which illustrate Obama’s scandals can bring these facts to a whole new audience which do not know of them, then that is what must be done.”
“No stone can be left unturned in terms of heightening public awareness so that when November comes, people won’t simply be angry about Obamacare, they will be rightfully horrified by a whole set of circumstances of which they were otherwise not aware – and vote accordingly.”
Proe said that conservatives getting “massacred” by the mainstream media further explained his motivation for producing Orwell’s Obama:
“I have many years experience in media, advertising and various graphics and video/cinema aspects. The reason of doing such an elaborate and visually high-tech and novel approach for an Obama Scandal video is two-fold: the first is to give good people something that is worth their five minutes. In that respect this just meets the demands of the most basic tradition of any kind of theatrical presentation: put on a good show.
“But much more importantly is that, as every conservative knows, we on the right are just getting massacred in the media. In my opinion, we are now genuinely moving into a time the historical precedent of which is best described by citing Hitler’s Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Russia.”
Watch the five minute Orwell’s Obama  below. The first is 2D, followed by the 3D version, which is best viewed with 3D Anaglyphic Red and Cyan glasses. Get out the popcorn!
- See more at:



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July 05, 2014
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Aviation Sector Targeted for Attacks
July 5, 2014
Between June 30 and July 2, 2014, AlertsUSA issued the following
related Flash messages to subscriber mobile devices:
6/30 - Heads Up: White House / DHS to announce increase in domestic and int'l airport security procedures due to rising terrorism threat. Plan for travel delays.
7/2 - Multiple USGOV agencies warning of increased domestic terror threat over holiday. Traveling abroad? Keep in mind State Dept Worldwide Caution. Vigilance urged.
7/2 - DHS announces implementation of 'enhanced security measures' at overseas airports with direct flights to U.S. due to aviation terror threat. Developing...
What You Need To Know
On multiple occasions this week AlertsUSA subscribers were notified via text messages to their mobile devices regarding steps being taken by federal authorities to ramp up security in the international aviation sector due to an increasing threat of terrorism.
Travelers heading to the U.S. from Europe and the Middle East now face closer scrutiny due to fears that Muslim extremists are developing new explosives that could be slipped onto planes undetected. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson announced the extra security measures on Wed. Despite the government saying that these increased security measures are focused on inbound international flights, AlertsUSA's law enforcement sources indicate domestic as well as outbound international flights will also experiencing increased security screenings.
As reported by AlertsUSA Threat Journal on multiple occasions in just the past few months (see this and this), Western defense and intelligence agencies are increasingly concerned that hundreds, if not thousands, of Islamic radicals travelling from Europe and the U.S to fight in the Middle East could pose a security risk upon their return. And as anyone who has traveled between the U.S. and Europe knows, you can freely do so without a visa. This leaves innumerable opportunities open to exploit the system. For example, citizens of the EU easily flying to America to carry out attacks and vice versa.
Analysts believe the new warnings are directly linked to concerns that Yemen-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is now passing on bomb making expertise to militants fighting in Syria and Iraq, many of whom, as we have also previously reported, have received extensive battlefield training from the U.S. in the fight to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad.
As AlertsUSA has warned on numerous occasions over the past decade, as the number of U.S. and European Muslims, be they life-long followers of Islam or western "clean skin" converts, embrace the radical mindset and either head off to the Middle East to join in the jihad, or simply access extremist websites and get their fill of hate and fieldcraft from the comfort of their parents basement, the problem only grows.
Readers are reminded that despite a seeming lull in domestic terror attacks, it is important to realize this is not for lack of trying. There exist dozens of counter terrorism operations constantly underway in the U.S. and Europe, the details of which are rarely paraded. Doing so serves no public, tactical or strategic benefit and actually makes it more difficult for the intelligence, investigative or protective services to operate. But even a simple, friendly conversation with any federal agent or member of the special operations community, if specifically asked, will without hesitation reveal that there are a constant stream of active threats facing the homeland, from lone individuals all the way through to well organized, state sponsored operations, and that their tempo is increasing.
Just because they are not reported by the mainstream media does not mean they are not happening.
Politically Incorrect Truths
About Modern Terrorism and Islam
Despite well circulated claims that al Qaeda is a creation of the CIA, that 9/11 was an inside job, or that each terror incident taking place in the U.S. is some type of false flag operation, true or not, these side issues should not be allowed to cloud your understanding of some basic politically incorrect realities and facts:
1. The United States has been in a constant state of war, for whatever reason, for nearly 13 years. In that time, America has made many enemies, and most of these are Muslim.
2. While not all Muslims are terrorists, a vast majority of the terrorist acts committed in this world over the past 13 years have been carried out by Muslims. Not Christians, not Mormons, Protestants or the Amish, but Muslims. For many of the radical followers, they rationalize their actions based on the more than 150 verses within both the Quran and Hadith specifically calling on all Muslims to wage war with nonbelievers for the sake of Islamic rule.
3. As of the time of this report's preparation on Friday, July 4th, in just one organization's count, since 9/11 there have been 23,311 separate Islamist terrorist attacks around the world. Only a small fraction of these attacks are categorized as battlefield actions against U.S. or Western soldiers. The majority are indicents like grenades and bombs tossed into schools and churches, suicide bombings in marketplaces, beheadings and crucifixions for not observing Islamic law and so on.
4. During the past week, Islamists have carried out 39 separate terrorist attacks and two suicide bombings resulting in 262 dead and 386 wounded. And lest we forget, this is just the first week in the Holy Month of Ramadan.
It is this trend reaching the U.S. that has law enforcement and national security-related departments and agencies growing more worried.
As American and European Muslims active on the battlefield acquire necessary fieldcraft and technical expertise then ultimately return home, it would be embarrassingly naive to think that such skills will not be employed against American targets as well as our citizens and interests abroad. And as the world has experienced on multiple occasions, this includes commercial aviation targets.
With just these few examples, it should be easy to see that the terrorist threat environment facing America is growing more serious by the day. And it behooves readers to be paying attention.
As AlertsUSA has done for over a decade, we continue to closely monitor the national threat picture and will immediately notify service subscribers of changes in the overall threat environment or related breaking incidents of national significance, as event warrant.
7/3 - Tensions flare in Israel over Hamas rocket attacks. IDF massing on Gaza border. New travel guidance from US Embassy Tel Aviv forthcoming. Vigilance urged.
7/1 - Tropical storm Arthur forms off E coast of FL, expected to intensify, poss to CAT 1 hurricane off NC by Fri. Coastal residents / visitors advised to monitor.

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New Islamic Caliphate Leader - ALLOW IMAGES
ISIS Declares Caliphate Across Syria and Iraq,
More U.S. Troops Deployed
July 5, 2014
Between June 29-30, 2014, AlertsUSA issued the following
related Flash messages to subscriber mobile devices:
6/29 - ISIS 'declares new Islamic state' (caliphate) extending from Allepo in W Syria to NE Baghdad in Iraq. States move ushers in "a new era of international jihad".
6/30 - DoD announces deployment of ~300 more US troops to Iraq. Also includes rotary aircraft, intel, surveillance and recon support. Situation escalating.
What You Need To Know
On multiple occasions this week AlertsUSA subscribers were also notified via text messages to their mobile devices regarding the declining situation in the country as well as increasing U.S. military deployments.
On Monday, the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the Islamic militant group ISIS, or the Islamic State Iraq and Syria, formally declared the establishment of a new "caliphate," which essentially is an Islamic state led by a supreme religious and political leader known as a caliph, or a "successor" to Muhammad. Tthe area claimed by the new Islamic State stretches from northwestern Syria all the way east to the Baghdad area. It remains to be seen if the caliphate claim holds up against the sure-to-follow infighting and general descent.
The new self-proclamed caliph is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the current / former head of ISIS. In yet another irony, Department of Defense records indicate Baghdadi was actually captured on the battlefield and held at Camp Bucca in Iraq as a ‘civilian internee’ from February to December of 2004 when he was granted unconditional release.
Also on Monday the DoD announced the deployment of an additional 300 soldiers to the country, bringing the total reported number of reported U.S. troops on the ground to 750, far more than the 300 originally stated by President Obama just two weeks ago. In a letter sent by President Obama to Congress, he states that American military forces "remain in Iraq until the security situation becomes such that it is no longer needed." Additional U.S. warships have now arrived on station in the Persian Gulf and even more assets are headed to the region.
Late this week the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey told reporters that U.S. special operations forces in Iraq were reporting that while Iraq's military was "capable of defending Baghdad," it will probably not be able to recapture ground they have already lost to Islamist militants without assistance.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and General Dempsey went onto tell reporters that while the United States will continue to limit its military support in Iraq to an advisory role, they do not rule out the prospect of greater involvement if the threat by Islamic insurgents increases.
Saudi Arabia has deployed 30,000 soldiers along it's 500 mile long border with Iraq in an effort to prevent a spillover into the Kingdom. Late last week Jordan also deployed a significant force to its common border with Iraq following militant calls for Jordanian King Abdullah's execution, declaring him a traitor to Islam who has joined forces with the West.
Here again, we warn readers that U.S. involvement in Iraq will continue to expand in the weeks and month ahead. Despite this massive foreign policy failure, far too much hangs in the balance in terms of the stability of world oil markets, regional strategic positioning and alliances as well domestic security due to the terrorist threat emanating from the region for the U.S. to simply stay on the sidelines.
As always, AlertsUSA continues to closely monitor developments in public health arena and will immediately notify service subscribers of major public health threats, epidemics or other outbreaks of national significance as events warrant.

Travel Security Update
The U.S. Dept. of State is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning on international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to do a little research on the security situation prior to departure.
New USGOV Travel Alerts and Warnings




See all USGOV Travel Alerts and Warnings HERE.

An Analysis of the US Senate Races – Who Will Win Control in November?



So what will it take in this country to get Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to sit down? Do Republicans stand a chance of winning a majority in the US Senate?
We are 4 months away from election day when we will find out. And a lot will happen between now and then. Some good (for Republicans) some not so good.
My current score is at the bottom of the page if you want to look at my “prediction” for Senate Control in November as things stand now.

Historic Trends:

We have a lot of polling data going back a while. For the purposes of my initial analysis, I always like to look at the mood of the country in the past and how it effected – or at least seemed to effect – the elections. And presidential popularity, job approval and the “generic” Congressional ballot are fairly good indicators, and somewhat consistant in predicting or at least understanding why people voted like they did. And how they may vote in November.

2002 Election

In 2002, George W. Bush was president, of course. Following Bush’s election in 2000, the US Senate was deadlocked in a 50-50 tie giving VP Dick Cheney the tie-breaking vote and this allowed the Republicans to maintain control after losing 4 seats in the 2000 election. The slim majority disappeared, however, when Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont decided to become an Independent and caucus with the Democrats. So on election day 2002, the Democrats held a one seat majority.
2002 being a midterm election, the normal expectation is that the party that holds the White House will lose a few seats. So Democrats were hoping for a larger majority. But they were disappointed when the election yielded a net gain of 2 seats for the Republicans, giving them control of the Senate once again and bucking a 100 year trend in midterm elections.
So what happened?
Let’s examine the factors I previously mentioned under “Historic Trends”. In 2002, Bush was enjoying a 65% approval rating with only 32% disapproving. The aftermath of 9/11 was the reason. He was riding the wave his response to the terrorist act created. However, the “Generic Congressional Ballot” survey showed Republicans only at +2. Which indicates that Bush was very popular – something that was about to change – but the country gave most of the credit to Bush, not his party.

2004 Election

By the 2004 election, in which Bush defeated John Kerry, his approval rating was down to 50% with a disapproval of 47%, about the margin he won by. There were a lot of people still fond of Bush for his efforts to bring America back from 9/11 and they voted for him. The Generic Congressional ballot was a tie. But somehow the Republicans managed to pick up 4 seats in the US Senate. But this was a Presidential election and Bush still had coattails.

2006 Election

Democrats were apoplectic that Bush had won reelection. And the media joined the Democrats to tear down Bush on any and every front. And they did so with great effectiveness as the wars dragged on and discontent rose. And the 2006 midterms were a disaster for the Republicans. But looking at Bush’s approval numbers, they were down to 39% and his disapproval was at 55%. Even worse, the Generic Congressional ballot showed the nation favoring Democrats by 11.5%. And the combination of a high disapproval of the president coupled with very favorable generic polling data, the Democrats took a net of 6 Senate seats from the Republicans. So not only was Bush unpopular, the Democrats had managed to state the case to the voters that the Democrats were a better alternative.

2008 Elections

Presidential election year 2008 was the perfect storm for Democrats. Bush was down to a 29% approval rating with a 68% disapproval rating. And the generic ballot had Democrats at a +9. Not as high as 2 years earlier, but still high. And with the phenomenon that was Barack Obama, this trilogy of factors combined to see Democrats gain 8 more Senate seats. The Republicans were down to only 41 seats. Again, a presidential election year.

2010 Election

Another midterm election where we would expect Democrats – the party holding the White House – to lose a seat or two. Obama’s popularity had dropped like a rock from almost no disapproval and near 100% approval at his election in 2008 to 46% approval and 49% disapproval. But even more important was the Congressional Generic ballot. Republicans stood at a +9. And these factors, a negative net approval for the president and a large generic lead for Republicans – indicating that they have made their case to the people as a viable option combined to see the Republicans gain 6 seats. Obamacare and other overreaching on Obama’s part played a major role.

2012 Election

The last election showed Obama’s approval at 50% and his disapproval at 47%. The generic ballot was a tie. This was, of course, a presidential election year and the Democrats turned out to vote. But with a net positive approval and at least a tie on the generic ballot, the Democrats managed to get back 2 of the seats they lost in 2010.

2014 Election

Looking back at the midterm indicators for 2002, 2006 and 2010 we see that despite Bush having a 65% approval rating in 2002, Republicans only gained 2 seats. But the generic Congressional ballot was only +2 for Republicans. So a high approval rating alone did not translate into major Senate seat pickups. Still, it was a gain and the midterm trend says Republicans should have lost seats. And in 2006, Bush had a 39%-55% negative approval and the generic ballot was +11.5 for the Democrats, and the net result was a 6 seat gain for Democrats. And in 2010 Obama had a slight negative approval rating at 46% approval to 49% disapproval. But the Generic ballot had Republicans up +9. And the Republicans won 6 seats in 2010. And in the presidential election years it shows that the party that wins the White House gets a coat tail boost in the Senate races.
But 2014 is a bit of an oddity looking at these indicators.  Obama is down 42% to 54% in his approval ratings, yet Democrats hold a slight lead in the generic ballot polls of +1.4%. So historically, at least going back to 2002, in order to gain 6 or more seats a party needs both a negative approval rating for the occupant of the White House and a near double digit advantage in the generic ballot polls.
Obama has the negative approval rating that Republicans want to see, but the generic ballot numbers are an indication that the public may not like Obama’s job performance, but Republicans have not made a case like they did in 2010 (+9) this year. So while we have the approval numbers where they need to be – the will to vote Republican is missing.

Why Were Republicans +9 in 2010?


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